Oasis or Mirage?

We explored more of the Mojave Desert this summer.  In particular, we went to Mojave National Preserve and Joshua Tree National Park.  We stayed in Needles and Twentynine Palms respectively.  My wife commented that one of the big differences between to the two places was trains--Mojave NP had them and Joshua Tree NP didn't.  Many of the early National Parks were created at the urging of the railroads to give passenger train riders a destination.

The Twentynine Palms stay was especially interesting because of 29 Palms Inn.  This is an eclectic array of structures occupying the western third of the Oasis of Mara, a classic California fan palm oasis.  Here's a screenshot from Google Maps--

Click this link if you'd like to open Google Maps and see the image in context.

Notice the line of vegetation that marks the Pinto Mountain Fault.  The grinding at the fault boundary produces an impermeable clay layer.  Underground water infiltrating from the higher land to the south comes to surface resulting in an oasis, although these days human or natural hydrologic changes have caused the flow to diminish to the point that there's no longer surface water without some pumping.  Some claim this place is the source of the name of the town of Twentynine Palms.  During the railroad expansion in the American West, Southern Pacific Railroad was granted ownership of the oasis, as well as considerable other property along its route.  SP sold the land to J.P. Roberts and his partners.  They built the Gold Park Hotel, a collection of cabins east of the oasis.  After a few years, Roberts decided he liked the wetter west end of the oasis better and had the cabins dragged there with a pickup truck.  The new location became the 29 Palms Hotel, later renamed 29 Palms Inn.  Roberts sold the inn to Harry Johansing, whose descendants have run the place ever since.  They're on the 5th generation.  In 1950, they donated the eastern 2/3 of the oasis to the National Park Service to become the Headquarters and Visitor's Center of Joshua Tree National Park.

The Real (This) American Life; The Casa Grande

In mid-May, my wife and I were driving across the deserts of central Arizona to deliver some photos to an exhibit in Gilbert of all places.  We listened to "Hot in my Backyard" on This American Life on the radio as we drove.  The program was an interesting discussion of the state of the dialogue relative climate change.  I decided to send Ira Glass and his staff a note to see if I could interest them in a discussion of the larger picture.  I never heard back, as is more common than not.  Here's what I sent.  Since I'm remaking this into a blog post, I've put some links into the text.

______________________________________________

Ira and Co.,

Your shows are very well done.  We listened to “Hot in My Backyard” recently while we drove across the desert to Gilbert, Arizona, to drop off a photo for an art show my wife had entered.  We stopped at the ruins of the lost Hohokam civilization at Casa Grande National Monument on the way home to Tucson.  The program was interesting and insightful, but missed the real story of our age.  I can’t honestly say that I heard anything that surprised me, but I’m a Ph.D. biologist by training.  We were discussing the likelihood of climate change in the 1970s and 80s.  An atmospheric scientist friend told me in the early 80s that in his circles there was speculation that if the Antarctic ice cap destabilized it could slough off in as little as 40 years.  For the moment, it’s stabile.  Watching the wave of realization that we can affect the world’s climate spread out from the scientific community across the rest of society is interesting.  You presented scenes of that wave of thought change well.  But what if climate change is only one subplot of a larger story, a distraction almost?

Irrational Exuberance--Fracking Frenzy

Since it's been the better part of a year since I wrote a post, a few things have happened.  The strangest one hands-down has been the hysteria over the blip in U.S. oil and gas production due to use of hydraulic fracturing on "tight" sediments.  A few days ago, George Mitchell passed away.  His company, Mitchell Energy and Development Corporation, developed the techniques that have spurred that production blip-- http://cgmf.org/p/family-statement.html.

It's pretty interesting that Mitchell became quite interested in sustainable living and created a foundation for that purpose.  Hydraulic fracturing, "fracking", is an inherently unsustainable production method for gas and oil.  A frack well is expensive to drill and has a miserable production curve.  And many reasonable people are concerned about the long-term environmental effects of adding fractures and fluids to sedimentary rock layers underlying vast regions of our country.  Dave Summers on his blog, Bittooth Energy, explains the specific case of Bakken (North Dakota) hydrofracking, where new wells must be drilled at a furious rate to attempt to compensate for the rapid production drop off of a shale oil well.  The Bakken is often pointed to as our salvation relative oil production; not so.

Despite the production problems with frack wells, many commentators project wondrous output for years to come, even claiming the U.S. could become a net producer and exporter of oil and gas.  Here's two studies that try to puncture these trial balloons of fantasy.  The New Economics Foundation out of Great Britain, explains that the expense of new sources of oil combined with declining production of conventional sources, will force economic contraction across the developed world.  The Energy Watch Group from Germany does a comprehensive analysis of all the major non-renewable energy sources; oil, gas, coal, and uranium.  They conclude that worldwide oil production actually peaked in 2012 and is on the the decline.  Other hydrocarbons and uranium, don't really look any better.

Review at least the executive summary of those two reports.  Then you decide if the exuberance you've heard in the popular press regarding U.S. energy production prospects has any rational basis.  I think it's a pretty classic example of wishful thinking on a national, perhaps a global, scale, but maybe I'm becoming curmudgeonly :)